At Fung Global Retail & Technology, we expect back-to-school sales to increase 2%–3% versus the 0.4% increase last year, and as compared to the average increase of 4.4% over the last 23 years, based on data from the US Census Bureau. Over the last three years, sales in July and August (the back-to-school period) as a percentage of the full year, have remained relatively consistent at roughly 16.9%. If we assume that trend is sustained, it would imply sales growth in the range of 2%–3% in 2016. Macroeconomic and other indicators construct a mixed backdrop as we enter the back-to-school season.

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