One of China’s top climate scientists says that China is on track to see carbon dioxide emissions peak between 2020 and 2022, almost a decade earlier than the Chinese leadership has promised, and to make its economy far more energy-efficient than expected. Beijing’s Energy Research Institute’s Senior Researcher Jiang Kejun also confirmed that China’s coal use peaked in 2014, a full decade before most observers thought that it would be possible; the seeming decline since that peak has been regarded by some analysts as a temporary blip due to factors such as a weak economy and increased hydropower in a rainy year, but Jiang says that coal use is on a permanent decline.

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