Micron Technology’s stock price has declined by more than 60% over the past year, mainly on account of a weak PC market, disappointing earnings, and concerns about DRAM oversupply. Weak PC demand and the consequent oversupply situation were the primary reasons for the steep decline in DRAM prices in 2015. DRAM prices are expected to continue declining this year as supply outpaces demand.  Nevertheless, we forecast that the rate of decline in Micron’s DRAM revenue to slow in 2016. Additionally, we expect the decline in price to slow in 2017 as well, which will help the company re-accelerate DRAM revenue growth 2017 onward. Contributing as well will be the transition to the 20nm technology, which should allow Micron to gain some market shareas well.

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