We recently revised our price estimate for VMware from $86 to $74. The primary reasons for the price estimate revision were lower revenue expectations, particularly for software licenses, which will negatively impact the company’s margins and earnings going forward. In its fourth quarter and full year earnings call in January, VMware’s management provided weak revenue guidance for 2016. Moreover, the announcement of the Dell-EMC deal resulted in VMware’s stock plummeting by over 25% at the time. With Dell acquiring EMC, it has effectively taken the 97% voting rights of VMware but floated over 50% of VMware’s stock as tracking stock with no voting rights. VMware’s shareholders have been unhappy with the conditions of the deal since then.
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